Date of Submission

3-28-2014

Date of Award

3-28-2015

Institute Name (Publisher)

Indian Statistical Institute

Document Type

Doctoral Thesis

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Subject Name

Quantitative Economics

Department

Economics and Planning Unit (EPU-Delhi)

Supervisor

Somanathan, E. (EPU-Delhi; ISI)

Abstract (Summary of the Work)

This dissertation consists of three chapters, each of which deals with a particular aspect of environmental policy. The first chapter focuses on the determinants of open-field burning of rice-residue with the aim of analysing possibilities for its regulation. Open field burning is the second-largest contributor to black carbon in South Asia, the second most important greenhouse agent after carbon dioxide. Thus, dealing with the problem of burning of rice residue will tackle a significant proportion of the black carbon emissions released into the atmosphere. The third chapter proposes a new approach for estimating the contribution of agricultural fires to atmospheric aerosols. This approach exploits the recently available satellite data on agricultural fires and AOD to conduct regression analysis.The second chapter of this dissertation deals with the impact of pollution and global warming on wheat yields in India. Relationships between wheat yield and daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature and solar radiation were evaluated by analysing data from 208 districts of India covering the period 1981-2009. The estimated weather parameter from the estimated regressions were used to assess the impact of recent climate trends and the impact of future climate change on wheat yields.I will now discuss each of these essays in brief by outlining the motivation and major results. In the chapters that follow, we discuss each of them in greater detail1.1 Low-hanging fruit in black carbon mitigation: crop residue burning in South AsiaBiomass burning in South Asia is a significant contributor to global emissions of black carbon, the second most important greenhouse agent after carbon dioxide. Emissions from domestic fires are the largest contributor to biomass burning but may be costly to mitigate. Open field burning is the second-largest contributor to black carbon in South Asia. This chapter uses primary field data to identify the determinants of emissions from open-field burning of crop residue with the aim of analysing possibilities for its regulation. The effectiveness of a new seeding machine that lets farmers plant their crops without having to burn the residue from the previous crop is assessed. A comparison of the new machine with conventional practice shows that the new technology decreases field preparation costs but does not significantly impact crop yield and profits. The use of plot-level data with farmer fixed effects enables reliable identification of the impacts of the technology. Given the considerable adverse effects on mortality and health of pollution from burning, these results imply that this source of black carbon can be mitigated at zero private cost and negative social cost. Since farmers have no strong private incentive to adopt the new technology, extension and subsidies to accelerate adoption would be a high net-benefit policy.1.2 Global warming and local air pollution have reduced wheat yields in IndiaRegression analysis on data from all major wheat growing districts of India was used to examine the effect of temperature, solar radiation (affected by pollution from aerosols), and rainfall on wheat yields in India. Estimates from models with district fixed effects and time trends indicates that a 1â—¦C increase in average daily maximum and minimum temperature tends to lower yields by 2-3% each. Solar radiation has a one-for-one positive effect on yields indicating that pollution reduction that reduces solar dimming could raise yields. The estimated weather parameters from these regressions were used to assess the impact of recent climate trends and the impact of future climate change on wheat yields. The maximum and minimum temperature during the wheat-growing season has increased by 0.7 â—¦C and 1â—¦C over the period 1981-2009. Wheat yields in India would have been higher in 2009 by 4.8% (95% CI: [2.4, 7.4])if this temperature increase had not occurred. Results of the estimation of the impact of future climate change predict even higher losses ranging from 12.3% for mid-term climate change (2010-2040) and up to 17.4% by 2070.

Comments

ProQuest Collection ID: http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqm&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:28843766

Control Number

ISILib-TH403

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

DOI

http://dspace.isical.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/10263/2146

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