On the estimation of population size from a dependent triple-record system

Article Type

Research Article

Publication Title

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society


Population size estimation based on a capture–recapture experiment under a triple-record system is an interesting problem in various fields including epidemiology and population studies. In many real life scenarios, there is inherent dependence between capture and recapture attempts. We propose a novel model that successfully incorporates the possible dependence and the associated parameters have nice interpretations. We provide estimation methodology for the population size and the associated model parameters based on the maximum likelihood method. The model proposed is applied to analyse real data sets from public health and census coverage evaluation studies. The performance of the estimate proposed is evaluated through extensive simulation study and the results are compared with existing competitors. The results exhibit superiority of the model over the existing competitors both in real data analysis and in a simulation study.

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Publication Date



Open Access, Green