COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.
Paul, Ayan; Reja, Selim; Kundu, Sayani; and Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, "COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution" (2021). Journal Articles. 2061.