Date of Submission


Date of Award


Institute Name (Publisher)

Indian Statistical Institute

Document Type

Doctoral Thesis

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Subject Name

Quantitative Economics


Economic Research Unit (ERU-Kolkata)


Bhattacharya, Nikhilesh (ERU-Kolkata; ISI)

Abstract (Summary of the Work)

There has been a peralstent empliasis both at the na tional and international levela on the developmont and application of techniques of estimation of demographio variablos from incomplete or inagcurute data in Coneietont wi th the theme of reuoaroh, the the lesu developed rogiona. present study tries to provide estimates of vital rates and prospective population trends in India and to form a basis for suoh hunan neede as vducation, employment, f'anily weltare,and few others in terms of population size,growth, ago s truature and nuptiality. The other major objectivu is to undertake furthor utilization of data generated by tihe national population censuses and vital rogis tration systems for ostinution and analysis. The work was an outoome of ny applied resuaroh in demography and of aa tuarial statiatioe at the graduato and postgraduate levels in the Indian Statistioal. Institute and Indtlal work was undertaken in assoociation witth late ProfesBor Ajit Das Gupte, TA, formor UN Consultant, and wae oontimied under the advioe of Dr. J. Hoy, Researoh Professor of the Indian Statistioal Institute. the lectures for aourses in demography and eleewhere. Late Professor Ajit Das Gupta was a pioneer in demographio eutimation and analyaia in India. It is likely, as his researoh assooiate,that his views oan be found to permeate this work. I am indebted to him for his valuable suggeations in the early stages of this research.Hy profound grat itude is due to Professor J. Roy for his very kinily argeeing to Bupervioo the present work and extending all kindo of oomputer faol.litios. Aa a teaoher and guide, he has been stimulating, supporting and putlent. I an grateful for hie thougdıtful suggesti.ona,' oounente and aonetruclive aritioiama in refining the work.Of the several expurtu wi th whom I have generally discussed my resoarch, speoial montion should be made of Profassor Auok M1.tra whose enoouragoment, invaluable advioe and holp,generously given at the time of personal consul tationu, aro gratofully aoknowledged.Dr. Ranjan K. Som, United Nations Technical Adviser on Population Dynamics, provided in his personal capacity encouragement and helpful comments I wish to express my deep grati- I have profited much from discussions with Professor S. Mitra, on some of y papera related to the study. tude to him. Emory University, Georgia and Dr. P. Das Gupta, Mathematical Statietician of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. As a professional associate of the East-West Population Inatitute,' Havaii, I had fruitful discussiona wi th its faculty members. Their sugges- tions and comments are deeply appreciated. Dr. Dorothy Nortman of the Population Counoil provided me a computer tape for which I am very much thankful. Discussions with Professor K. Sivasvany Srikantan, Gokhale Institute of Politics & Economics and Professor M.K. Premi, Jawaharlal Nehru University were extremely helpful and are gratefully acknowledged. To Dr. Nikilesh Bhattacharjee, Professor-in-Charge of the Social Sciences Division and Head of the Economic Research Unit of the Indian Statistical Institute, I expressry deep gratitude for his contimous support for demographio research, valuable advice and overall encouragement. I am partioularly indebted to Dr. A.B. Gupta, Head, Physics Unit of the Institute, for his valuable editorial comments on earlier drafts of this mono- graph and for hie useful suggestions for improving the presentation. I would also like to acknowledge the help received in computer progranaing and data processing from Mr. Subhas Kundu, sSystem Analyst and Mr. Ranajit K. Naha, Floor Manager of the Computer Science Unit of the Institute. Discussions with my colleagues in the demographio faculty have been very useful and are acknowledged with thanks. Special mention should be made of Dr. C.R. Malaker, Mr. M.V. Raman and Mr. B. Chakraborty with whom I had frequent dialogue and exchange of ideas on the theme of this research. Mr. Prasanta Kumar Svar successfully handled a difficult job of typing and contributed his energy and enthusiasm for assieting me in completing this vork.


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