Date of Submission


Date of Award


Institute Name (Publisher)

Indian Statistical Institute

Document Type

Doctoral Thesis

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy

Subject Name

Quantitative Economics


Economic Analysis Unit (EAU-Bangalore)


Narayana, N. S. S. (EAU-Bangalore; ISI)

Abstract (Summary of the Work)

Agriculture is an importannt sector of the economy in many developing countries. Of late, in many countries, this sector Is believed to be suffering from unstable performance, especially where the modern (Green Revolutlon) technology has been widely adopted. The issue of stability of agricul tura! performance is one of international concern. This thesis is about the performance of cereal crop yiel ds in India.Importance of Agriculture in the Indian Economy.Agriculture is an important sector Aooounting for more than 30% of the countrys national 1988-89, the performance of agriculture, both as nateriais for industrla! producelon ponsumption demand, determines of the Indian economy . income in SOurce of raw and as Source of final to large extent the Overal I a. performance of the I ndian economy. Moreover, despite the rapid growth achieved by the non-agricultural sectors (industries and services) agriculture continues to remain the main, if not the only, source of livelihood for a vast majority of the country's population. In 1991, nearly 65% of the population dependent Were on agriculture (Bansil (1991)). Above all these, is the food requirement of the Worlds second largest population of 870 millions (in 1991) growing at the rate of 2. 1% per annum. Thus, it is obvinus that agricul tural de velopment free of undesired i ncome insta- bilities is essentia! ta) for employment and generation, and (b) to meet the food requirements of a growing population.Indeed, during the era of planned development beginning from 1950-51, I nd lan agrioulture has witnessed a transformation from a state of all round backwardness and stagnation to one of technological progress and growth. This can be obser ved agricultural gross domes tic product presented in table 1. 1. cultural gross domestic product at 1980-81 from the Agri- prices (New Series), grew from Rs. 23741 orores in 1950-51 to Rs. 61789 crores In 1988- 89. This amounts to an annual compound growth rate of about 2,48%.In terms of physical output, (see table 1. 1) foodgrains production grew from about 50.,8 million tonnes ( m. t.) (of which ceraals produotion was 42.4 m. t.) in 1950-51 to about 169.9 m. t. (156. 1 m. t. cereals production) in 1988-89. The annual compound growth rate of foodgrains production over this period is 3. 14%, while that of cereals production is 3.40%. The simultaneous rapid growth in population over this period has, however, meant that the per capita daily avail ability of foodgrains only marginally, from 394. 9 grams about 494.4 grams (452.4 grams) in 1990-89. Corresponding Figures of per capita agrioultural GDP are Rs.654 (1950-51) (cereals) has risen (334.2 grams) In 1950-51 to figures and Rs. 757.4 (1988-89).As a result of the progress achieved In foodgrains production, Imports of f oodgrains fell to a large extent and In fact In a few years the country even exported small quantIties of t.o foodgrains. This trans formation has prompted many clalm that India is now self sufficient in foodgrains. How has the growth in Indian agrloul ture come about? An important oharacteristic of Indian agriculture ia that is largely private aontrolled, in the hands of mil!ions of farmers.


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