An in-depth analysis of population ageing for selected states in india in the perspective of economic development

Document Type

Conference Article

Publication Title

Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics


Present paper examines how selected states in India with varying level of economic development are at varying phases of taking advantage of demographic dividend. It shows how the variation in taking advantage of the demographic dividend occurs due to variation in the temporal pattern of the young and the old age dependent populations. Significance of the young vis-a-vis the old age dependent populations in economic perspective has been looked into separately. An attempt has been made to deal the above aspects analytically so that the states can be classified. The states which have been selected for in-depth study are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. To maintain comparability over the years, undivided Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh have been considered. Census publications for the years 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 have been used for the study. Other than using the demographic measures like overall dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio and young age dependency ratio, a newly introduced measure called replacement ratio has been used and their temporal patterns have been analytically studied by using statistical models. A distance measure has been used to rank the states in terms of the estimates of the replacement ratio. The states have been classified into two groups based on advancement in taking advantage of demographic dividend. It makes clear that variation in economic development of different states has definite influence on the temporal and regional characteristics of the considered measures of population dynamism. The paper ends with important policy implications of the in-depth analyses.

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